FX Trading Signals for August 12
Sunday, August 12th, 2007 (1950 New York Time/ Monday 0520 IST) JAPAN
Then, on Sunday at 7:50 p.m. NY time we will have Japanese GDP coming out. It is expected that Japanese GDP q/q will come out at around 0.2%. There are going to be several numbers, and this is going to be the most important one. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, we may possibly see USD/JPY going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. At the same time, if the GDP reads at 0% or negative, I think USD/JPY may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This report is a time sensitive one, and may affect eventually the Japanese government's decisions to either hike or not hike the rate.
3. Sunday, August 12th, 2007 (2130. New York Time/ Monday 0700 IST) AUSTRALIA
Then at 9:30 p.m. New York time we will have Australian inflation report. I don't think this is worth trading.
4. Monday, August 13th, 2007 (0830. New York Time/ 1800 IST) USA
Then on Monday at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. retail sales coming out. Probably the most important number is the U.S. retail sales CORE which is expected to read at 0.4%. If it reads at 1% or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the retail sales come out at zero or negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. That would largely depends on where the price is right before the report. This is definitely not the key indicator so be careful on it.
5. Monday, August 13th, 2007 (1845 New York Time/Tuesday 0415 IST) NEW ZEALAND
Then, at 6:45 p.m. New York time on Monday we will have New Zealand retail sales coming out. It is expected to read 0.5%. If it reads 0.8% or higher, I think NZD/USD may possibly gain 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the retail sales reads 0.2% or lower, I think NZD/USD may possibly go down by 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
6. Tuesday, August 14th, 2007 (0430 New York Time/ 1400 IST) UK
Then later, on Tuesday at 4:30 a.m NY time, we will have UK CPI coming out. It's an annualized number, and it is expected to read at 2.3% versus 2.4% last month. The year-over-year regular CPI is the most important reading that everybody cares about. In my opinion, we definitely want to focus on it. If the reading reads 2.5% or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. At the same time, if the CPI reads 2.1% or lower, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This is definitely a very, very, very key indicator at this point of the economy, and even a deviation of 0.1 % can create a move. I will see how the market is acting before the report, but I am very excited to trade this one.
7. Tuesday, August 14th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time/ 1800 IST) CANADA
Then, at 8:30 a.m. NY time we will have U.S. trade balance, and we will have Canadian trade balance coming out. The Canadian trade balance is the most important one, in my opinion. It is expected read at 5.5 billion versus 5.9 billion last month. If it reads 6B or higher, I think EUR/CAD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. At the same time, a reading of 5 billion or below will probably force EUR/CAD up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Watch out for some volatility that may be caused by the U.S. trade balance, although I think if you focus on EUR/CAD and Canadian trade balance, it should work OK.
Then, on Sunday at 7:50 p.m. NY time we will have Japanese GDP coming out. It is expected that Japanese GDP q/q will come out at around 0.2%. There are going to be several numbers, and this is going to be the most important one. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, we may possibly see USD/JPY going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. At the same time, if the GDP reads at 0% or negative, I think USD/JPY may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This report is a time sensitive one, and may affect eventually the Japanese government's decisions to either hike or not hike the rate.
3. Sunday, August 12th, 2007 (2130. New York Time/ Monday 0700 IST) AUSTRALIA
Then at 9:30 p.m. New York time we will have Australian inflation report. I don't think this is worth trading.
4. Monday, August 13th, 2007 (0830. New York Time/ 1800 IST) USA
Then on Monday at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. retail sales coming out. Probably the most important number is the U.S. retail sales CORE which is expected to read at 0.4%. If it reads at 1% or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the retail sales come out at zero or negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. That would largely depends on where the price is right before the report. This is definitely not the key indicator so be careful on it.
5. Monday, August 13th, 2007 (1845 New York Time/Tuesday 0415 IST) NEW ZEALAND
Then, at 6:45 p.m. New York time on Monday we will have New Zealand retail sales coming out. It is expected to read 0.5%. If it reads 0.8% or higher, I think NZD/USD may possibly gain 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the retail sales reads 0.2% or lower, I think NZD/USD may possibly go down by 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
6. Tuesday, August 14th, 2007 (0430 New York Time/ 1400 IST) UK
Then later, on Tuesday at 4:30 a.m NY time, we will have UK CPI coming out. It's an annualized number, and it is expected to read at 2.3% versus 2.4% last month. The year-over-year regular CPI is the most important reading that everybody cares about. In my opinion, we definitely want to focus on it. If the reading reads 2.5% or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. At the same time, if the CPI reads 2.1% or lower, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This is definitely a very, very, very key indicator at this point of the economy, and even a deviation of 0.1 % can create a move. I will see how the market is acting before the report, but I am very excited to trade this one.
7. Tuesday, August 14th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time/ 1800 IST) CANADA
Then, at 8:30 a.m. NY time we will have U.S. trade balance, and we will have Canadian trade balance coming out. The Canadian trade balance is the most important one, in my opinion. It is expected read at 5.5 billion versus 5.9 billion last month. If it reads 6B or higher, I think EUR/CAD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. At the same time, a reading of 5 billion or below will probably force EUR/CAD up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Watch out for some volatility that may be caused by the U.S. trade balance, although I think if you focus on EUR/CAD and Canadian trade balance, it should work OK.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 11:34 AM
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