FX Trading Signals for Mar 07
1. Wednesday, March 7th, 2007 (8:15 am New York Time) USA
We have ADP Employment Report coming out of the US. It's expected to come out at 100K or so. If the number comes out at 180K or higher, it would probably be good for the dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly decrease by around 30 to 40 pips. If the report comes out at 20K or lower, it would probably be bad for the dollar, so GBP/USD may possibly increase by around 30 to 40 pips. Remember, ADP employment will be scrutinized in order to receive clues of where the Non-Farm payroll will come out, though this report has been losing its reputation as a predictor of Non-Farm payroll, because few times, it came out completely off base. If you can't get into this trade within 10 pips of the pre-release price, I would suggest just skipping it. Chasing this report is probably not a very good idea, because it has a tendency to quickly spike up or down, and then retrace. Market sentiment prior to this report would be crucial.
2. Wednesday, March 7th, 2007 (3:00 pm New York Time) New Zealand
Then we have interest rate statement coming out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at 7.50%, so they are expecting a rate hike out of bank of New Zealand. If it comes out at 7.50%, it will probably have a reverse effect on the New Zealand dollar, since this hike is expected and priced in, when the interest rate is announced, I think Bollard will say something about that they are not going to be raising rate in the near future, and it will probably drive New Zealand dollar down, rather than up. So...if for some weird reason, New Zealand raises the rate to 7.75% or higher, it would probably be good for the New Zealand dollar, and NZD/USD might go up by 80 to 100 pips or more. If there is no rate hike, and it stays unchanged at 7.25%, it would probably be bad for New Zealand dollar, and NZD/USD may possibly decrease by around 50 pips or more. Remember...there may be comments accomodating the statement, and the sentiment of the comments may completely change the direction of the price, so be careful on this one.
We have ADP Employment Report coming out of the US. It's expected to come out at 100K or so. If the number comes out at 180K or higher, it would probably be good for the dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly decrease by around 30 to 40 pips. If the report comes out at 20K or lower, it would probably be bad for the dollar, so GBP/USD may possibly increase by around 30 to 40 pips. Remember, ADP employment will be scrutinized in order to receive clues of where the Non-Farm payroll will come out, though this report has been losing its reputation as a predictor of Non-Farm payroll, because few times, it came out completely off base. If you can't get into this trade within 10 pips of the pre-release price, I would suggest just skipping it. Chasing this report is probably not a very good idea, because it has a tendency to quickly spike up or down, and then retrace. Market sentiment prior to this report would be crucial.
2. Wednesday, March 7th, 2007 (3:00 pm New York Time) New Zealand
Then we have interest rate statement coming out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at 7.50%, so they are expecting a rate hike out of bank of New Zealand. If it comes out at 7.50%, it will probably have a reverse effect on the New Zealand dollar, since this hike is expected and priced in, when the interest rate is announced, I think Bollard will say something about that they are not going to be raising rate in the near future, and it will probably drive New Zealand dollar down, rather than up. So...if for some weird reason, New Zealand raises the rate to 7.75% or higher, it would probably be good for the New Zealand dollar, and NZD/USD might go up by 80 to 100 pips or more. If there is no rate hike, and it stays unchanged at 7.25%, it would probably be bad for New Zealand dollar, and NZD/USD may possibly decrease by around 50 pips or more. Remember...there may be comments accomodating the statement, and the sentiment of the comments may completely change the direction of the price, so be careful on this one.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 8:55 PM
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