FX Trading Signals for July 02, 2007
On Monday we have three reports coming out, and all three are pretty important as they can cause a move.
1. Monday, July 2nd, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York time) UK
We will start Monday with UK Manufacturing PMI. It is supposed to measure manufacturing activity in the United Kingdom, and it is expected to come out at exactly the same level as it came out last month at 54.9. If it comes out at 56 or higher, it would be a big surprise because the Pound has been strengthening, and a stronger pound is usually bad for manufacturing activity, plus a reading of 56 or above would be a historic high reading as this report never read higher than 55.4. So, I think it would be a possible buy on GBP/USD if it comes out at 56 or higher. On the other hand, if the report comes out at 52.9 or lower, it would be a very low reading, the lowest reading in the last few months, and I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by about 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Of course, watch out for strong price levels before this report because it may minimize the move. If my trigger is hit, I think we should be able to see at least 30 pips either direction in the first hour of the report.
SUMMARY:* Report: UK Manufacturing PMI*
Possible BUY on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 56 or higher*
Possible SELL on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 52.9 or lower*
Expect 30 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit.
2. Monday, July 2nd, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York time) USA
Then at 10 a.m. we have an ISN manufacturing index coming out of the United States, along with ISN manufacturing prices. The U.S. manufacturing index is the most important one, and it is a measure of manufacturing activity in the United States. It is a very respected indicator as it has been coming out since the 1920s. It is also expected to come out the same reading as last month at about 55. If for some reason the reading is 57 or higher, that would mean that manufacturing is really picking up in the U.S., and that would probably be good for the dollar so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, a reading of 53 or lower would be pretty bad for the dollar because the dollar has been weakening against world currency pairs and is supposed to make their products more competitive on the world market, and make the manufacturing activity grow. So, if it actually declines to 53 or lower, I think it would be bad for the dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
SUMMARY:* Report: U.S. manufacturing index*
Possible SELL on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 57 or higher*
Possible BUY on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 53 or lower*
Expect 40 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit.
3. Monday, July 2nd, 2007 (9:30 p.m. New York time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 9:30 p.m. New York time we have Australian retail sales and building approvals coming out. Retail sales is definitely the more important one here, and it came out very low last month, at 0.1%. It is expected to rebound to about 0.7%. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, it would be the highest reading in well over a year, and I think it would be bullish for the Australian dollar, so we may see AUD/USD going up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If, however, the report comes out at 0.4% or lower, I think it could be devastating for the Australian dollar simply because 0.4% is a relatively low reading, especially that the prior number was 0.1% so it is a low number after low number. It means that the retail sector may be shrinking in Australia, and they may have to hold on some of their hawkish interest-rate decisions so we may see AUD/USD going down by, I think, as much as 40 pips or more in the first hour after the report.
SUMMARY:* Report: Australian retail sales*
Possible BUY on AUD/USD if reading comes out at 1.1% or higher*
Possible SELL on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 0.4% or lower*
Expect 40 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit.
1. Monday, July 2nd, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York time) UK
We will start Monday with UK Manufacturing PMI. It is supposed to measure manufacturing activity in the United Kingdom, and it is expected to come out at exactly the same level as it came out last month at 54.9. If it comes out at 56 or higher, it would be a big surprise because the Pound has been strengthening, and a stronger pound is usually bad for manufacturing activity, plus a reading of 56 or above would be a historic high reading as this report never read higher than 55.4. So, I think it would be a possible buy on GBP/USD if it comes out at 56 or higher. On the other hand, if the report comes out at 52.9 or lower, it would be a very low reading, the lowest reading in the last few months, and I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by about 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Of course, watch out for strong price levels before this report because it may minimize the move. If my trigger is hit, I think we should be able to see at least 30 pips either direction in the first hour of the report.
SUMMARY:* Report: UK Manufacturing PMI*
Possible BUY on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 56 or higher*
Possible SELL on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 52.9 or lower*
Expect 30 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit.
2. Monday, July 2nd, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York time) USA
Then at 10 a.m. we have an ISN manufacturing index coming out of the United States, along with ISN manufacturing prices. The U.S. manufacturing index is the most important one, and it is a measure of manufacturing activity in the United States. It is a very respected indicator as it has been coming out since the 1920s. It is also expected to come out the same reading as last month at about 55. If for some reason the reading is 57 or higher, that would mean that manufacturing is really picking up in the U.S., and that would probably be good for the dollar so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, a reading of 53 or lower would be pretty bad for the dollar because the dollar has been weakening against world currency pairs and is supposed to make their products more competitive on the world market, and make the manufacturing activity grow. So, if it actually declines to 53 or lower, I think it would be bad for the dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
SUMMARY:* Report: U.S. manufacturing index*
Possible SELL on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 57 or higher*
Possible BUY on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 53 or lower*
Expect 40 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit.
3. Monday, July 2nd, 2007 (9:30 p.m. New York time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 9:30 p.m. New York time we have Australian retail sales and building approvals coming out. Retail sales is definitely the more important one here, and it came out very low last month, at 0.1%. It is expected to rebound to about 0.7%. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, it would be the highest reading in well over a year, and I think it would be bullish for the Australian dollar, so we may see AUD/USD going up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If, however, the report comes out at 0.4% or lower, I think it could be devastating for the Australian dollar simply because 0.4% is a relatively low reading, especially that the prior number was 0.1% so it is a low number after low number. It means that the retail sector may be shrinking in Australia, and they may have to hold on some of their hawkish interest-rate decisions so we may see AUD/USD going down by, I think, as much as 40 pips or more in the first hour after the report.
SUMMARY:* Report: Australian retail sales*
Possible BUY on AUD/USD if reading comes out at 1.1% or higher*
Possible SELL on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 0.4% or lower*
Expect 40 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 8:20 PM
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