FX Trading Signals for Feb 01
1. Thursday, February 1st, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We first have UK manufacturing PMI coming out. This report measures manufacturing activity in the UK, and is considered important. This indicator has been on steady decline since September of 2006, and is expected to come out slightly lower this month than it was last month. Last month this indicator read 51.9, and this month it's expected to come out at 51.7. If this report comes out at 53 or higher, it would be a very nice rebound, and would break the declining streak, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. Plus considering the strength of the pound in the last couple of months, such high reading of 53 or higher, would be extremely promising, because usually when the currency is strong, manufacturing activity within the country suffers massively. If the reading is at 50.0 or lower, that would be bad for the pound short term, and I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If my trigger is hit, we might see a move in the GBP/USD pair by as much as 50 pips, but the move may take 20 to 30 minutes to fully unfold. If you don't have the capability of getting before the spike starts happening, then you can try to get in on 2nd wave, per my video tutorial in the beginning of this email.
2. Thursday, February 1st, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have Core PCE coming out of the US, which is an inflationary indicator that sometimes the government trusts even more than CPI. It's expected that PCE will come out at 0.2% month over month. If the reading reads 0.0% or negative, it would be bad for the dollar short term, and I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the reading reads 0.4% or higher, it would mean inflation is getting out of control, and the Fed may do another rate hike eventually, so it would be good for the dollar, and I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. This report rarely give a trade signal, so I am uncertain on how exactly the price action will react if my triggers are hit, but I would expect a move of at least 30 pips on GBP/USD, and perhaps even 50 pips or more.
3. Thursday, February 1st, 2007 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
Then we have US ISM Manufacturing coming out. This is a big boy. After Chicago PMI coming out at 48.8 earlier today, I am sure there are expectations that ISM manufacturing would be more likely to give a downside surprise, so an upside surprise would be a bigger surprise. It's expected that ISM Manufacturing will come out somewhere between 51.5 to 52.0. If the ISM manufacturing reads 50 or below, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it reads 53 or above, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If my triggers are hit, I would expect a move of around 50 pips or more. It may take about 5 to 10 minutes for the move to fully develop, so you can look for second wave trades per my tutorial video.
4. Thursday, February 1st, 2007 (7:30 pm New York Time) Australia
Then we have Australian trade balance coming out. It's expected that the trade balance will read slightly more negative than last month. It's expected that trade balance will come out at -1,000 million (-1 billion). If the trade balance reads at -1,500 or more negative, it would almost be the most negative reading in the last 6 months (October of 2006 we had a reading of -1508). So if it reads -1500 or more negative, I may possibly go short on AUD/USD, since it would be bad for the Australian dollar. If the reading reads at -500 million or less negative, it would be a relatively low trade deficit for Australia, so it would be good for the Australian dollar, so I may possibly go long AUD/USD. If my trigger is hit, we may see a move in the Australian dollar by about 35 to 40 pips. Unfortunately, unless you catch the spike on this report, I doubt that you can make much outside of it. You can try to look for 2nd waves, but generally speaking, 80% of the move happens in the first 15 to 20 seconds, and then there is consolidation with just slight price appreciation or depreciation.
We first have UK manufacturing PMI coming out. This report measures manufacturing activity in the UK, and is considered important. This indicator has been on steady decline since September of 2006, and is expected to come out slightly lower this month than it was last month. Last month this indicator read 51.9, and this month it's expected to come out at 51.7. If this report comes out at 53 or higher, it would be a very nice rebound, and would break the declining streak, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. Plus considering the strength of the pound in the last couple of months, such high reading of 53 or higher, would be extremely promising, because usually when the currency is strong, manufacturing activity within the country suffers massively. If the reading is at 50.0 or lower, that would be bad for the pound short term, and I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If my trigger is hit, we might see a move in the GBP/USD pair by as much as 50 pips, but the move may take 20 to 30 minutes to fully unfold. If you don't have the capability of getting before the spike starts happening, then you can try to get in on 2nd wave, per my video tutorial in the beginning of this email.
2. Thursday, February 1st, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have Core PCE coming out of the US, which is an inflationary indicator that sometimes the government trusts even more than CPI. It's expected that PCE will come out at 0.2% month over month. If the reading reads 0.0% or negative, it would be bad for the dollar short term, and I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the reading reads 0.4% or higher, it would mean inflation is getting out of control, and the Fed may do another rate hike eventually, so it would be good for the dollar, and I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. This report rarely give a trade signal, so I am uncertain on how exactly the price action will react if my triggers are hit, but I would expect a move of at least 30 pips on GBP/USD, and perhaps even 50 pips or more.
3. Thursday, February 1st, 2007 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
Then we have US ISM Manufacturing coming out. This is a big boy. After Chicago PMI coming out at 48.8 earlier today, I am sure there are expectations that ISM manufacturing would be more likely to give a downside surprise, so an upside surprise would be a bigger surprise. It's expected that ISM Manufacturing will come out somewhere between 51.5 to 52.0. If the ISM manufacturing reads 50 or below, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it reads 53 or above, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If my triggers are hit, I would expect a move of around 50 pips or more. It may take about 5 to 10 minutes for the move to fully develop, so you can look for second wave trades per my tutorial video.
4. Thursday, February 1st, 2007 (7:30 pm New York Time) Australia
Then we have Australian trade balance coming out. It's expected that the trade balance will read slightly more negative than last month. It's expected that trade balance will come out at -1,000 million (-1 billion). If the trade balance reads at -1,500 or more negative, it would almost be the most negative reading in the last 6 months (October of 2006 we had a reading of -1508). So if it reads -1500 or more negative, I may possibly go short on AUD/USD, since it would be bad for the Australian dollar. If the reading reads at -500 million or less negative, it would be a relatively low trade deficit for Australia, so it would be good for the Australian dollar, so I may possibly go long AUD/USD. If my trigger is hit, we may see a move in the Australian dollar by about 35 to 40 pips. Unfortunately, unless you catch the spike on this report, I doubt that you can make much outside of it. You can try to look for 2nd waves, but generally speaking, 80% of the move happens in the first 15 to 20 seconds, and then there is consolidation with just slight price appreciation or depreciation.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 2:31 PM
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