FX Trading Signals for Jan 26
1. Friday, January 26th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have Durable Goods coming out of the US. This is a crazy report that can deviate greatly. We have two main numbers. The headline number and the core number, also known as the number X transportation. My focus will be the core number. The expectations is that December Durable Goods X Transportation will come out at 0.5%. A slight rebound after two big declines is expected. Remember...back in October, we saw a decline in this number by a huge -1.8%, and then in November by -1.1%. If the number tomorrow comes out at 0% or negative, it would signify either flat reading or a decline after two huge declines and would be bad for the dollar short term, and I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. Especially that December is a Christmas month...no good. If the number rebounds and reads 1.0% or higher, it would be good for the U.S. dollar short term, and I may possibly go short GBP/USD. It would be ideal if the headline number didn't conflict, but even if it does by a little, the X transportation should still pull out the move after a bit of whipsaw action. If my triggers are hit, and there are no large conflicts, I would expect a move of at least 30 pips on GBP/USD.
2. Friday, January 26th, 2007 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
Then we have New Home sales coming out. Even though new home sales constitutes for only about 15% of all home sales in the U.S., they are extremely important, because when new home sales are booming, the manufacturing and construction industries are booming, and it says something about people's confidence, because if people are buying new homes, that generally means that they are picking them over existing homes that are cheaper, and therefore are confident about their future financial situation. It's expected that new home sales for the month of December will come out at 1050K or so, which is a little bit better than they came out last month. Last month was 1047K. This is a very interesting indicator that seems to be important, but the market reacts to it in a weird way. We really need a big deviation in order to see a decent size move. If the number comes out at 1122K or higher, it would be the highest reading since January of 2006, and should be good for the dollar short term, so I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If the reading is at 978K or lower, it would be the lowest reading since February of 2003, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If my triggers are hit, I would expect a move of at least 30 pips.
We have Durable Goods coming out of the US. This is a crazy report that can deviate greatly. We have two main numbers. The headline number and the core number, also known as the number X transportation. My focus will be the core number. The expectations is that December Durable Goods X Transportation will come out at 0.5%. A slight rebound after two big declines is expected. Remember...back in October, we saw a decline in this number by a huge -1.8%, and then in November by -1.1%. If the number tomorrow comes out at 0% or negative, it would signify either flat reading or a decline after two huge declines and would be bad for the dollar short term, and I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. Especially that December is a Christmas month...no good. If the number rebounds and reads 1.0% or higher, it would be good for the U.S. dollar short term, and I may possibly go short GBP/USD. It would be ideal if the headline number didn't conflict, but even if it does by a little, the X transportation should still pull out the move after a bit of whipsaw action. If my triggers are hit, and there are no large conflicts, I would expect a move of at least 30 pips on GBP/USD.
2. Friday, January 26th, 2007 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
Then we have New Home sales coming out. Even though new home sales constitutes for only about 15% of all home sales in the U.S., they are extremely important, because when new home sales are booming, the manufacturing and construction industries are booming, and it says something about people's confidence, because if people are buying new homes, that generally means that they are picking them over existing homes that are cheaper, and therefore are confident about their future financial situation. It's expected that new home sales for the month of December will come out at 1050K or so, which is a little bit better than they came out last month. Last month was 1047K. This is a very interesting indicator that seems to be important, but the market reacts to it in a weird way. We really need a big deviation in order to see a decent size move. If the number comes out at 1122K or higher, it would be the highest reading since January of 2006, and should be good for the dollar short term, so I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If the reading is at 978K or lower, it would be the lowest reading since February of 2003, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If my triggers are hit, I would expect a move of at least 30 pips.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 11:16 AM
<< Home