FX Trading Signals for Jan 24
1. Wednesday, January 24th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have GDP coming out of UK for the 4th quarter. Expectations is that the number will come out at 0.7%. A trigger of 0.1% deviation either direction would normally be sufficient, however, during this time, we also have BOE meeting minutes coming out, which could cause a conflict. Therefore the triggers must be more conservative. If the number comes out at 0.9% or higher, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at 0.5% or lower, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. It's hard to identify a conflict out of the minutes. I would just have to look and see. But basically if my trigger is hit, just try to catch the initial spike.
2. Wednesday, January 24th, 2007 (3:00 pm New York Time) New Zealand
Then we have New Zealand interest rate statement coming out. After such negative CPI and retail sales last week, it's expected that New Zealand will keep the rates unchanged. If there is a hike to 7.50%, I may possibly go long on NZD/USD. There is a possibility that NZD/USD will weaken if the rates are unchanged...but it may be too risky to short it. If you participate in carry trades, just look for a dip in NZD/JPY to get that pair at a good price, in case there is no hike. Going short New Zealand dollar on no rate hike would be too risky in my opinion. I'll do more research about that. I'll see what the New Zealand newspapers are talking about, and may change my opinion, but at this point, I think only a long in case of a hike is safe.
We have GDP coming out of UK for the 4th quarter. Expectations is that the number will come out at 0.7%. A trigger of 0.1% deviation either direction would normally be sufficient, however, during this time, we also have BOE meeting minutes coming out, which could cause a conflict. Therefore the triggers must be more conservative. If the number comes out at 0.9% or higher, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at 0.5% or lower, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. It's hard to identify a conflict out of the minutes. I would just have to look and see. But basically if my trigger is hit, just try to catch the initial spike.
2. Wednesday, January 24th, 2007 (3:00 pm New York Time) New Zealand
Then we have New Zealand interest rate statement coming out. After such negative CPI and retail sales last week, it's expected that New Zealand will keep the rates unchanged. If there is a hike to 7.50%, I may possibly go long on NZD/USD. There is a possibility that NZD/USD will weaken if the rates are unchanged...but it may be too risky to short it. If you participate in carry trades, just look for a dip in NZD/JPY to get that pair at a good price, in case there is no hike. Going short New Zealand dollar on no rate hike would be too risky in my opinion. I'll do more research about that. I'll see what the New Zealand newspapers are talking about, and may change my opinion, but at this point, I think only a long in case of a hike is safe.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 9:49 AM
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