FX Trading Signals for Jan 10
1. Wednesday, January 10th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have UK Trade Balance coming out. We have the total trade balance, the visible trade balance, and the non-EU trade balance. The most important number will be the visible trade balance. The expectations are mostly that the visible trade balance will come out somewhere between -6,400 million and -6,500 million. If the number comes out at -7,000 million or more negative, it would be bad for the pound, so the GBP/USD may possibly decrease by around 50 pips or so. If the trade balance comes out at -6,000 million or less negative, it would be good for the pound, and the GBP/USD may possibly increase by around 50 pips or so. If you are feeling a little bit riskier, then you can possibly go short on GBP/USD if the number comes out at -6,800 or more negative, or go long on GBP/USD if the number comes out at -6,200 or less negative. In such scenario, I would expect GBP/USD to still move by at least 30 pips or so.
2. Wednesday, January 10th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have Trade Balance coming out of the U.S. Market tends to care a lot less about this report than it cares for the GBP Trade Balance. Last month we had a huge shock in the trade balance out of the U.S. It came out deviating by over 4 billion on the positive side. It was the most positive reading in well over a year, and what did the GBP/USD do? It barely blipped down by 30 pips, and then went back to the pre-release price, shrugging this report off as if it had no meaning. This month, the expectation is that this report will come out at -60 billion or so. If it comes out at -62 billion or more negative, not only will it be by 2 billion worse than consensus, but it would also register a gap from previous release by almost 4 billion, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at -58 billion or less negative, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD, since it would be even a more positive reading than last month by almost a billion. Again, my expectations are 30 pips on this report worst case scenario, and as much as 80 pips or more best case scenario. Market sentiment will play a big role. Don't be surprised if the price goes back to the pre-release price shortly after the report, and then makes a huge move.
3. Wednesday, January 10th, 2007 (7:30 pm New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then we have Australia Employment index coming out. By far the most watched and traded economic report out of Australia. The expectations by most economists is that this report will read between 10K to 20K, 15K being the median. If this report comes out at 30K or more positive, it would be good for the Australian dollar, so I may possibly go long on AUD/NZD or AUD/USD. If the report comes out at 0K or negative, I may possibly go short on AUD/NZD or AUD/USD. Don't expect NFP miracles on this report, if my triggers are hit, I expect only about 30 pips move on AUD/USD and perhaps 40-45 pips move on AUD/NZD.
We have UK Trade Balance coming out. We have the total trade balance, the visible trade balance, and the non-EU trade balance. The most important number will be the visible trade balance. The expectations are mostly that the visible trade balance will come out somewhere between -6,400 million and -6,500 million. If the number comes out at -7,000 million or more negative, it would be bad for the pound, so the GBP/USD may possibly decrease by around 50 pips or so. If the trade balance comes out at -6,000 million or less negative, it would be good for the pound, and the GBP/USD may possibly increase by around 50 pips or so. If you are feeling a little bit riskier, then you can possibly go short on GBP/USD if the number comes out at -6,800 or more negative, or go long on GBP/USD if the number comes out at -6,200 or less negative. In such scenario, I would expect GBP/USD to still move by at least 30 pips or so.
2. Wednesday, January 10th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have Trade Balance coming out of the U.S. Market tends to care a lot less about this report than it cares for the GBP Trade Balance. Last month we had a huge shock in the trade balance out of the U.S. It came out deviating by over 4 billion on the positive side. It was the most positive reading in well over a year, and what did the GBP/USD do? It barely blipped down by 30 pips, and then went back to the pre-release price, shrugging this report off as if it had no meaning. This month, the expectation is that this report will come out at -60 billion or so. If it comes out at -62 billion or more negative, not only will it be by 2 billion worse than consensus, but it would also register a gap from previous release by almost 4 billion, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at -58 billion or less negative, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD, since it would be even a more positive reading than last month by almost a billion. Again, my expectations are 30 pips on this report worst case scenario, and as much as 80 pips or more best case scenario. Market sentiment will play a big role. Don't be surprised if the price goes back to the pre-release price shortly after the report, and then makes a huge move.
3. Wednesday, January 10th, 2007 (7:30 pm New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then we have Australia Employment index coming out. By far the most watched and traded economic report out of Australia. The expectations by most economists is that this report will read between 10K to 20K, 15K being the median. If this report comes out at 30K or more positive, it would be good for the Australian dollar, so I may possibly go long on AUD/NZD or AUD/USD. If the report comes out at 0K or negative, I may possibly go short on AUD/NZD or AUD/USD. Don't expect NFP miracles on this report, if my triggers are hit, I expect only about 30 pips move on AUD/USD and perhaps 40-45 pips move on AUD/NZD.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 9:14 AM
<< Home