FX Trading Signals for Dec 21
1. Thursday, December 21st, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have two important reports coming out of the UK. We have GDP & Current Account coming out. Both are capable of moving GBP/USD by 30 to 50 pips. What happens if they conflict? The whipsaw massacre happens. Then you say, why not wait for both of them, and only trade if they don't conflict? Well...imagine one of these reports gets released 2 seconds faster than the other, and the first one already moved the market by 30-40 pips, and you see that the 2nd one doesn't conflict, and you enter at the top or bottom of the maxed out move...no good. GDP is a little bit bigger caliber report, but a very steady one with minimal deviations. Current account is a bit smaller caliber, but the deviations can be crazy. What I will do is look for a shock on the GDP number, a shock so strong, that it will make the current account look irrelevant. So GDP is expected to come out at 0.7%. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 0.5% or less, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. But the chances of such deviations are slim to none.
2. Thursday, December 21st, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have 4 different reports coming out. Another freaking waste of golden opportunities by slamming all these reports into release all at the same time. We have core retail sales coming out of Canada, which can move USD/CAD by as much as 50 pips or more. We have Canadian GDP coming out, which can also move USD/CAD by as much as 50 pips or more. We also have U.S. GDP coming out, which can move GBP/USD by 50 pips or more. We also have quarterly PCE coming out, which is important, but usually very steady, with very few deviations and surprises. I am going to have to ignore the golden Canadian reports, because of potential unpleasant conflict. I will focus on U.S. GDP, which is expected at 2.2%. If it comes out at 2.4% or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 2.0% or lower, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. PCE Core is expected at 2.2%, if it conflicts by at least 0.2%, I will exit my positions immediately.
3. Thursday, December 21st, 2006 (12:00 pm New York Time) USA
We have Philly Fed Index coming out of the U.S. It's expected that the number will come out at 4.0. If the number comes out at 15 or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at -5 or more negative, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If my triggers are hit, I expect GBP/USD to move by at least 25 to 35 pips...
We have two important reports coming out of the UK. We have GDP & Current Account coming out. Both are capable of moving GBP/USD by 30 to 50 pips. What happens if they conflict? The whipsaw massacre happens. Then you say, why not wait for both of them, and only trade if they don't conflict? Well...imagine one of these reports gets released 2 seconds faster than the other, and the first one already moved the market by 30-40 pips, and you see that the 2nd one doesn't conflict, and you enter at the top or bottom of the maxed out move...no good. GDP is a little bit bigger caliber report, but a very steady one with minimal deviations. Current account is a bit smaller caliber, but the deviations can be crazy. What I will do is look for a shock on the GDP number, a shock so strong, that it will make the current account look irrelevant. So GDP is expected to come out at 0.7%. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 0.5% or less, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. But the chances of such deviations are slim to none.
2. Thursday, December 21st, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have 4 different reports coming out. Another freaking waste of golden opportunities by slamming all these reports into release all at the same time. We have core retail sales coming out of Canada, which can move USD/CAD by as much as 50 pips or more. We have Canadian GDP coming out, which can also move USD/CAD by as much as 50 pips or more. We also have U.S. GDP coming out, which can move GBP/USD by 50 pips or more. We also have quarterly PCE coming out, which is important, but usually very steady, with very few deviations and surprises. I am going to have to ignore the golden Canadian reports, because of potential unpleasant conflict. I will focus on U.S. GDP, which is expected at 2.2%. If it comes out at 2.4% or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 2.0% or lower, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. PCE Core is expected at 2.2%, if it conflicts by at least 0.2%, I will exit my positions immediately.
3. Thursday, December 21st, 2006 (12:00 pm New York Time) USA
We have Philly Fed Index coming out of the U.S. It's expected that the number will come out at 4.0. If the number comes out at 15 or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at -5 or more negative, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If my triggers are hit, I expect GBP/USD to move by at least 25 to 35 pips...
posted by Naveen Pantera at 8:20 PM
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