FX Trading Signals for Dec 13
1. Wednesday, December 13th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have US retail sales coming out. We have the headline number and the number X autos. Autos is a very expensive and volatile item, which can greatly throw off retail sales either direction, therefore most economists focus on the X autos number. X autos is expected to gain 0.3% in the month of November, versus a loss of -0.4% back in October. If the Retail Sales X autos come out at 0.5% or higher, it would signify that the month of November not only recovered the losses in retail sales throughout October, but even came ahead. So if the number comes out at 0.5% or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD, since it would be positive for the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, if the number comes out at 0% or negative, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. No gains in retail sales in a holiday month of November, after a huge drop of -0.4% in October would be looked at as very negative for the dollar. So if the number comes out at 0% or negative, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the headline number conflicts with the x autos number by at least 0.2% or more, I will be looking to exit right away. If my triggers are hit, I expect this report to give us at least 30 to 50 pips, depending on the deviations.
2. Wednesday, December 13th, 2006 (4:45 pm New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
We have New Zealand retail sales coming out for the month of October. It's expected to come out at around 0.1%, which is a relatively small gain, due to a huge gain of 1.2% back in September. If the number comes out at 1.0% or higher, it would be a very pleasant surprise for NZD, so I may possibly go either long on NZD/USD or short on AUD/NZD. If the number comes out at -0.9% or lower, it would be the biggest drop since February of 2004, and would be shockingly bad in the short term for New Zealand dollar. So if the number comes out at -0.9% or lower, I may possibly go short on NZD/USD or go long on AUD/NZD.
We have US retail sales coming out. We have the headline number and the number X autos. Autos is a very expensive and volatile item, which can greatly throw off retail sales either direction, therefore most economists focus on the X autos number. X autos is expected to gain 0.3% in the month of November, versus a loss of -0.4% back in October. If the Retail Sales X autos come out at 0.5% or higher, it would signify that the month of November not only recovered the losses in retail sales throughout October, but even came ahead. So if the number comes out at 0.5% or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD, since it would be positive for the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, if the number comes out at 0% or negative, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. No gains in retail sales in a holiday month of November, after a huge drop of -0.4% in October would be looked at as very negative for the dollar. So if the number comes out at 0% or negative, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the headline number conflicts with the x autos number by at least 0.2% or more, I will be looking to exit right away. If my triggers are hit, I expect this report to give us at least 30 to 50 pips, depending on the deviations.
2. Wednesday, December 13th, 2006 (4:45 pm New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
We have New Zealand retail sales coming out for the month of October. It's expected to come out at around 0.1%, which is a relatively small gain, due to a huge gain of 1.2% back in September. If the number comes out at 1.0% or higher, it would be a very pleasant surprise for NZD, so I may possibly go either long on NZD/USD or short on AUD/NZD. If the number comes out at -0.9% or lower, it would be the biggest drop since February of 2004, and would be shockingly bad in the short term for New Zealand dollar. So if the number comes out at -0.9% or lower, I may possibly go short on NZD/USD or go long on AUD/NZD.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 9:01 AM
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