FX Trading Signals for Dec 11
Only one report, and it might be a tough one to trade, because of two conflicting figures, but I think we could squeeze something out of it.
1. Monday, December 11th, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have UK Trade Balance coming out of UK. We will actually have three figures on the trade balance, and we will also have PPI numbers coming out. PPI output is more important than PPI input. PPI stands for Producer Price Index, and it's an inflation measure, not a very reliable one, because it only covers producer prices, but it can shock the market if it deviates significantly. The trade balance here is the most important figure in my opinion, assuming that PPI doesn't do anything crazy. The biggest focus will probably be the visible trade balance, which is expected at -6,600 million, or -6.6 billion. A number of -7,000 million or more negative would be unexpected, so if it happens, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. A number of -5,998 million or less negative would be this year's high, by beating April's number by only 1 thousand, April's number was -5,999 million. So such number would be positive for the pound, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. Watch out for conflicts on the monthly PPI numbers. PPI input is expected at -0.1%, output is expected at 0%, and output core is expected at 0.1%. If any of them come out deviating by at least 0.2%, as a conflict to the trade balance, I suggest staying out.
1. Monday, December 11th, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have UK Trade Balance coming out of UK. We will actually have three figures on the trade balance, and we will also have PPI numbers coming out. PPI output is more important than PPI input. PPI stands for Producer Price Index, and it's an inflation measure, not a very reliable one, because it only covers producer prices, but it can shock the market if it deviates significantly. The trade balance here is the most important figure in my opinion, assuming that PPI doesn't do anything crazy. The biggest focus will probably be the visible trade balance, which is expected at -6,600 million, or -6.6 billion. A number of -7,000 million or more negative would be unexpected, so if it happens, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. A number of -5,998 million or less negative would be this year's high, by beating April's number by only 1 thousand, April's number was -5,999 million. So such number would be positive for the pound, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. Watch out for conflicts on the monthly PPI numbers. PPI input is expected at -0.1%, output is expected at 0%, and output core is expected at 0.1%. If any of them come out deviating by at least 0.2%, as a conflict to the trade balance, I suggest staying out.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 7:37 AM
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