FX Trading Signals for Feb 08
1. Thursday, February 8th, 2007 (7:00 am New York Time) UK
We have UK interest rate statement coming out. The expectations is that the UK government will keep the rate unchanged at 5.25%. However, after a surprise rate hike last month, about 15% of the economists are expecting another surprise rate hike this month. I personally don't think that there is going to be a rate hike...simply because the previous rate hike was too close on the votes. But I hope I am wrong :) Basically if there is a rate hike to 5.50%, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. Expect about 100 to 120 pips move, then we should probably see about 40 to 50 pips retracement, which will be caused by people taking their profits, and then we'll probably see another 100 pips move or so. If there is a rate hike, and you can't get in on the initial spike, just wait for the retracement, and once you start seeing consolidation period after retracement, you can possibly go long. If there is no rate hike, most likely we'll see a temporary weakening in the pound, however shorting on no rate hike would be too risky in my opinion.
2. Thursday, February 8th, 2007 (7:45 am New York Time) E-12
Then we have interest rate statement out of E-12. It's expected unanimously that the rate will be kept unchanged at 3.50%. If for some reason there is a rate hike by 0.25% or more, I may possibly go long on EUR/USD. If there is no rate hike, I wouldn't trade. If there is a surprise rate hike, expect similar price action as I've explained on the pound above. Just EUR/USD will probably have smaller range...initial move may only be 80 pips or so.
3. Thursday, February 8th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) E-12
Then we have Trichet speaking. Generally his speeches are very mixed and very dangerous...they tend to create whipsaw moves in EUR/USD, so I am not planning to trade this speech. However, you should definitely be aware of this speech, so that you don't have a surprise stop/loss triggered if you are leaving your trades on.
We have UK interest rate statement coming out. The expectations is that the UK government will keep the rate unchanged at 5.25%. However, after a surprise rate hike last month, about 15% of the economists are expecting another surprise rate hike this month. I personally don't think that there is going to be a rate hike...simply because the previous rate hike was too close on the votes. But I hope I am wrong :) Basically if there is a rate hike to 5.50%, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. Expect about 100 to 120 pips move, then we should probably see about 40 to 50 pips retracement, which will be caused by people taking their profits, and then we'll probably see another 100 pips move or so. If there is a rate hike, and you can't get in on the initial spike, just wait for the retracement, and once you start seeing consolidation period after retracement, you can possibly go long. If there is no rate hike, most likely we'll see a temporary weakening in the pound, however shorting on no rate hike would be too risky in my opinion.
2. Thursday, February 8th, 2007 (7:45 am New York Time) E-12
Then we have interest rate statement out of E-12. It's expected unanimously that the rate will be kept unchanged at 3.50%. If for some reason there is a rate hike by 0.25% or more, I may possibly go long on EUR/USD. If there is no rate hike, I wouldn't trade. If there is a surprise rate hike, expect similar price action as I've explained on the pound above. Just EUR/USD will probably have smaller range...initial move may only be 80 pips or so.
3. Thursday, February 8th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) E-12
Then we have Trichet speaking. Generally his speeches are very mixed and very dangerous...they tend to create whipsaw moves in EUR/USD, so I am not planning to trade this speech. However, you should definitely be aware of this speech, so that you don't have a surprise stop/loss triggered if you are leaving your trades on.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 2:26 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home