FX Trading Signals for Feb 07
1. Wednesday, February 7th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have Industrial Production coming out of the UK. After a big jump on this reading last month, they are expecting this reading to be quite low, at 0.1%. If the reading comes out at 0.6% or higher, you can possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the reading comes out at -0.4% or more negative, you can possibly go short on GBP/USD. Such deviation would probably cause a move of 50 pips or more, and the price can continue moving for as long as 1 hour. So if such deviation occurs, and you are using a free news service on your broker, that will give you the news several seconds late, you can just skip the initial spike, wait for a retracement of 30 to 50%, re-enter into the trade, and shoot for about 50 pips target above or below the pre-release price.
2. Wednesday, February 7th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have US nonfarm productivity and unit labor cost coming out. Expect some small volatility during this time, but these reports are not that important, so I won't be trading them. In November, we saw a huge negative surprise in nonfarm productivity, and the pound just spiked by about 14 pips or so. These are just not the kind of moves I am looking for.
3. Wednesday, February 7th, 2007 (4:45 pm New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then we have New Zealand unemployment rate coming out. It's expected to come out at 3.8%. If it comes out at 3.5% or lower, it would be historical low, so you can possibly go long on NZD/USD. If the unemployment comes out at 4.1% or higher, it would be the highest reading since June of 2004, and you can possibly go short on NZD/USD. I would expect a move of at least 50 pips on NZD/USD if such reading occurs. And same as I said before, even if you have a free news service that's available on most brokers, and you get the news few seconds late, you can still enter in this trade, and hold on to a position for as long as 30 minutes to an hour.
4. Wednesday, February 7th, 2007 (7:30 pm New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then we have Australian employment figures coming out for the month of January. It's expected that it will come out at around 3K or so. If the number comes out at 50K or higher, it would be a very healthy employment reading, and you can possibly go long on AUD/USD or AUD/NZD. A reading of -35K or less would be the lowest reading since September of 2005, and you can possibly go short on AUD/USD or AUD/NZD. If my triggers are hit, I would expect a move of around 50 pips on AUD/USD, and the pair will probably move for as long as 30 minutes to an hour. So even if you miss the initial spike, because your news service is too slow, you can try to get in a bit late, and still come out in profit. There is also unemployment figure that's coming out simultaneously. That's expected at 4.6%. Same as it's been coming out for the last 3 months. If that number conflicts by 0.1%, take advantage of a better price because of conflict. If the number conflicts by 0.2% or more, I would stay out of the trade altogether.
We have Industrial Production coming out of the UK. After a big jump on this reading last month, they are expecting this reading to be quite low, at 0.1%. If the reading comes out at 0.6% or higher, you can possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the reading comes out at -0.4% or more negative, you can possibly go short on GBP/USD. Such deviation would probably cause a move of 50 pips or more, and the price can continue moving for as long as 1 hour. So if such deviation occurs, and you are using a free news service on your broker, that will give you the news several seconds late, you can just skip the initial spike, wait for a retracement of 30 to 50%, re-enter into the trade, and shoot for about 50 pips target above or below the pre-release price.
2. Wednesday, February 7th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have US nonfarm productivity and unit labor cost coming out. Expect some small volatility during this time, but these reports are not that important, so I won't be trading them. In November, we saw a huge negative surprise in nonfarm productivity, and the pound just spiked by about 14 pips or so. These are just not the kind of moves I am looking for.
3. Wednesday, February 7th, 2007 (4:45 pm New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then we have New Zealand unemployment rate coming out. It's expected to come out at 3.8%. If it comes out at 3.5% or lower, it would be historical low, so you can possibly go long on NZD/USD. If the unemployment comes out at 4.1% or higher, it would be the highest reading since June of 2004, and you can possibly go short on NZD/USD. I would expect a move of at least 50 pips on NZD/USD if such reading occurs. And same as I said before, even if you have a free news service that's available on most brokers, and you get the news few seconds late, you can still enter in this trade, and hold on to a position for as long as 30 minutes to an hour.
4. Wednesday, February 7th, 2007 (7:30 pm New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then we have Australian employment figures coming out for the month of January. It's expected that it will come out at around 3K or so. If the number comes out at 50K or higher, it would be a very healthy employment reading, and you can possibly go long on AUD/USD or AUD/NZD. A reading of -35K or less would be the lowest reading since September of 2005, and you can possibly go short on AUD/USD or AUD/NZD. If my triggers are hit, I would expect a move of around 50 pips on AUD/USD, and the pair will probably move for as long as 30 minutes to an hour. So even if you miss the initial spike, because your news service is too slow, you can try to get in a bit late, and still come out in profit. There is also unemployment figure that's coming out simultaneously. That's expected at 4.6%. Same as it's been coming out for the last 3 months. If that number conflicts by 0.1%, take advantage of a better price because of conflict. If the number conflicts by 0.2% or more, I would stay out of the trade altogether.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 2:18 PM
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