FX Trading Strategy for Nov 29
1. Wednesday, November 29th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have U.S. GDP plus a few other reports coming out of the U.S. Last month the 1st estimate for 3rd quarter GDP came out at 1.6%. Right now, it's expected to come out at 1.8%. If the GDP comes out at 1.6% or less, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the GDP comes out at 1.8% or more, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. 1.7% would be a no trade. I may reconsider, and go short at 1.9% or higher, it all depends on what's happening during the London Session tonight, and where the price is at before the report. But I think if GDP happens to come out even as expected at 1.8%, we'll some temporary dollar strength. I think this report either direction, should give 30-50 pips. Of course, watch out for conflicts from other numbers, but most likely there won't be any, because the other 3 numbers coming out at the same time usually don't move that much.
2. Wednesday, November 29th, 2006 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
We have New Home Sales coming out of the U.S. Expected number is 1049K. If it comes out at 999K or lower, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 1075K or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. 1075K is a significant number, since it was the number that came out last month, same number would mean no decline in housing, and probably is going to be good for the dollar short term. This report can possibly move 30-50 pips, but price levels before the report will be an important factor.
3. Wednesday, November 29th, 2006 (7:30 pm New York Time) AUD
We have Retail Sales coming out of Australia. Expected numbers are somewhere between 0.4% and 0.5%. If the Retail Sales come out at 0.8% or higher, I may possibly go long on AUD/USD. If they come out at 0.2% or lower, I may possibly go short on AUD/USD. I think that AUD/NZD would be a better pair to trade these, but my broker Oanda today widened the spread on Australian report to 25 pips on the AUD/NZD. I am just not too excited to get into a trade with -25 pips right away. So if your broker doesn't hike the spread on that pair, I would trade AUD/NZD, because it will probably have twice bigger range. Personally, I'll probably trade AUD/USD.
We have U.S. GDP plus a few other reports coming out of the U.S. Last month the 1st estimate for 3rd quarter GDP came out at 1.6%. Right now, it's expected to come out at 1.8%. If the GDP comes out at 1.6% or less, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the GDP comes out at 1.8% or more, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. 1.7% would be a no trade. I may reconsider, and go short at 1.9% or higher, it all depends on what's happening during the London Session tonight, and where the price is at before the report. But I think if GDP happens to come out even as expected at 1.8%, we'll some temporary dollar strength. I think this report either direction, should give 30-50 pips. Of course, watch out for conflicts from other numbers, but most likely there won't be any, because the other 3 numbers coming out at the same time usually don't move that much.
2. Wednesday, November 29th, 2006 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
We have New Home Sales coming out of the U.S. Expected number is 1049K. If it comes out at 999K or lower, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 1075K or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. 1075K is a significant number, since it was the number that came out last month, same number would mean no decline in housing, and probably is going to be good for the dollar short term. This report can possibly move 30-50 pips, but price levels before the report will be an important factor.
3. Wednesday, November 29th, 2006 (7:30 pm New York Time) AUD
We have Retail Sales coming out of Australia. Expected numbers are somewhere between 0.4% and 0.5%. If the Retail Sales come out at 0.8% or higher, I may possibly go long on AUD/USD. If they come out at 0.2% or lower, I may possibly go short on AUD/USD. I think that AUD/NZD would be a better pair to trade these, but my broker Oanda today widened the spread on Australian report to 25 pips on the AUD/NZD. I am just not too excited to get into a trade with -25 pips right away. So if your broker doesn't hike the spread on that pair, I would trade AUD/NZD, because it will probably have twice bigger range. Personally, I'll probably trade AUD/USD.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 10:22 AM
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