FX Trading Strategy for Nov 14
Here is what's going today. Very busy day :)
1. Tuesday, November 14th, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have CPI figure coming out of UK. My focus will be on the core year over year number. It's expected to come out at 1.6%. If it comes out at 1.8% or higher, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 1.4% or lower, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. Watch out for any conflicts on the headline CPI month over month number. If the two conflict, exit immediately.
2. Tuesday, November 14th, 2006 (5:00 am New York Time) Germany
We have ZEW economic sentiment coming out of Germany. I don't want to comment on it at the moment. The way to trade it will depend on where the CPI report takes us. Even though this report will affect EUR/USD mostly, still GBP/USD and EUR/USD usually move in tandem, so what I do on the ZEW will heavily depend on what happens on the CPI.
3. Tuesday, November 14th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have Retail Sales and PPI numbers coming out of the U.S. We have both headline number and core number on both reports. The most important number is the month over month Core Retail Sales number, which is often referred to as Retail Sales Excluding Autos. This number is expected at -0.2%. If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, it would be good for the dollar, so I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If it comes out at -0.7% or more negative, it would be bad for the dollar, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. These are pretty big deviations that I am looking for. The reason for that is because we have so many other numbers that are coming out that could possibly conflict, like the retail headline numbers, and both core and headline PPI numbers. I may enter into a trade even if the deviation is not that big, but the other numbers would have to be in-line.
4. Tuesday, November 14th, 2006 (4:45 pm New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
We have Retail Sales coming out of New Zealand. We have three numbers coming out. We have the quarterly number, minus inflation, we have the monthly headline number, and we have the monthly number, minus autos. The quarterly number minus inflation is probably where most of the market focus will be. Generally speaking, this number is expected to come out at around 0.6 to 1.0%. If the number comes out at 0 or negative, I may possibly go long on AUD/NZD. If the number comes out at 1.5% or higher, I may possibly go short on AUD/NZD. Anything in between would be a no trade. Now, there are the other two numbers, and if this one doesn't deviate as much, the other two numbers might give a signal if they come out crazy, which is normal for New Zealand reports. I am going to play this report by ear. This definitely isn't the easiest one to trade.
1. Tuesday, November 14th, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have CPI figure coming out of UK. My focus will be on the core year over year number. It's expected to come out at 1.6%. If it comes out at 1.8% or higher, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 1.4% or lower, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. Watch out for any conflicts on the headline CPI month over month number. If the two conflict, exit immediately.
2. Tuesday, November 14th, 2006 (5:00 am New York Time) Germany
We have ZEW economic sentiment coming out of Germany. I don't want to comment on it at the moment. The way to trade it will depend on where the CPI report takes us. Even though this report will affect EUR/USD mostly, still GBP/USD and EUR/USD usually move in tandem, so what I do on the ZEW will heavily depend on what happens on the CPI.
3. Tuesday, November 14th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have Retail Sales and PPI numbers coming out of the U.S. We have both headline number and core number on both reports. The most important number is the month over month Core Retail Sales number, which is often referred to as Retail Sales Excluding Autos. This number is expected at -0.2%. If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, it would be good for the dollar, so I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If it comes out at -0.7% or more negative, it would be bad for the dollar, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. These are pretty big deviations that I am looking for. The reason for that is because we have so many other numbers that are coming out that could possibly conflict, like the retail headline numbers, and both core and headline PPI numbers. I may enter into a trade even if the deviation is not that big, but the other numbers would have to be in-line.
4. Tuesday, November 14th, 2006 (4:45 pm New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
We have Retail Sales coming out of New Zealand. We have three numbers coming out. We have the quarterly number, minus inflation, we have the monthly headline number, and we have the monthly number, minus autos. The quarterly number minus inflation is probably where most of the market focus will be. Generally speaking, this number is expected to come out at around 0.6 to 1.0%. If the number comes out at 0 or negative, I may possibly go long on AUD/NZD. If the number comes out at 1.5% or higher, I may possibly go short on AUD/NZD. Anything in between would be a no trade. Now, there are the other two numbers, and if this one doesn't deviate as much, the other two numbers might give a signal if they come out crazy, which is normal for New Zealand reports. I am going to play this report by ear. This definitely isn't the easiest one to trade.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 3:00 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home