Currency Focus

USD - Even though we've had a run of relatively disappointing data the bottom line from the Fed seems to be that until there is a material decline in core inflation they will not feel comfortable signalling a peak in interest rates. The Fed has been so clear in its message that they still see inflation and they have more positive views on the economy than the market. The Fed needs to change its communication if the market is to change its view into a bearish direction. We have a situation where the Fed has stopped raising rates. Market expectations are pretty much in line with the Fed's (thinking). That's a big contributing factor why exchange rates are so rangy.