Today Fx Trading Signals
Yesterdays Highlights :
Okay first of all, as you know, today we were watching FOMC minutes out of U.S. The comments were somewhat hawkish, and GBP/USD did drop by about 20 pips, however it wasn't clear enough. They mentioned that inflation is still high, and mentioned a couple of other U.S. positive things. Basically, they didn't say anything new, so there was no surprise, that's the reason why the move was so little, and it kept on retracing back and forth. I was looking for clear statement of another interest rate hike in order to take a short on GBP/USD, which would probably move the pound down by over 50 pips. But since it didn't happen, I didn't take a trade.
We have Australian Employment report coming out tonight at 9:30 pm New York Time. Yesterday, I gave you some preliminary triggers for this report, if you are to trade, but after doing some more research, I want to go more conservative. So basically the expectation is that this report will come out at 5K. If it comes out at 50K or higher, I may possibly go long on AUD/USD. If it comes out at -40K or more negative, I may possibly go short on AUD/USD. Anything in between will be a no trade, and even if the trigger gets hit, I am not counting on a move of more than 30 pips from the pre-release price. 30-40 pips is expected move.
Here Todays Happenings :
1. Thursday, October 12th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have Trade Balance coming out of USA. Expected number is approximately at -66.5 billion. If the number comes out at -65 billion or less negative, I may possible go short on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at -68 billion or more negative, I may possible go long on GBP/USD. If the triggers get hit, this should be a decent move of possibly 50 pips or more.
2. Thursday, October 12th, 2006 (10:00 am New York Time) E-12
We have Trichet speaking in a press conference with head of the Bank of Russia, and head of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Again, we are looking for clues on European interest rate decisions. Basically, E-12 is planning to do one more rate hike before the end of the year. If Trichet in any way plans to say that there is going to be more than one rate hike by the end of the year, EUR/USD may possibly increase by around 50 pips or more. If Trichet in any way mentions that there is probably going to be no rate hikes this year, EUR/USD may possibly decrease by around 50 pips. I will only be reacting and trading based on confirmative interest rate statements that are not already expected.
Okay first of all, as you know, today we were watching FOMC minutes out of U.S. The comments were somewhat hawkish, and GBP/USD did drop by about 20 pips, however it wasn't clear enough. They mentioned that inflation is still high, and mentioned a couple of other U.S. positive things. Basically, they didn't say anything new, so there was no surprise, that's the reason why the move was so little, and it kept on retracing back and forth. I was looking for clear statement of another interest rate hike in order to take a short on GBP/USD, which would probably move the pound down by over 50 pips. But since it didn't happen, I didn't take a trade.
We have Australian Employment report coming out tonight at 9:30 pm New York Time. Yesterday, I gave you some preliminary triggers for this report, if you are to trade, but after doing some more research, I want to go more conservative. So basically the expectation is that this report will come out at 5K. If it comes out at 50K or higher, I may possibly go long on AUD/USD. If it comes out at -40K or more negative, I may possibly go short on AUD/USD. Anything in between will be a no trade, and even if the trigger gets hit, I am not counting on a move of more than 30 pips from the pre-release price. 30-40 pips is expected move.
Here Todays Happenings :
1. Thursday, October 12th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have Trade Balance coming out of USA. Expected number is approximately at -66.5 billion. If the number comes out at -65 billion or less negative, I may possible go short on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at -68 billion or more negative, I may possible go long on GBP/USD. If the triggers get hit, this should be a decent move of possibly 50 pips or more.
2. Thursday, October 12th, 2006 (10:00 am New York Time) E-12
We have Trichet speaking in a press conference with head of the Bank of Russia, and head of the Deutsche Bundesbank. Again, we are looking for clues on European interest rate decisions. Basically, E-12 is planning to do one more rate hike before the end of the year. If Trichet in any way plans to say that there is going to be more than one rate hike by the end of the year, EUR/USD may possibly increase by around 50 pips or more. If Trichet in any way mentions that there is probably going to be no rate hikes this year, EUR/USD may possibly decrease by around 50 pips. I will only be reacting and trading based on confirmative interest rate statements that are not already expected.
posted by Naveen Pantera at 8:40 PM
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